All-time · All positions

Win Probability Added

Showing cost

A player is credited for what he scores and debited as his projection burns off unrealised, each priced by how much the matchup actually hung on it. So this measures performance against expectation under pressure rather than raw production: a quiet week in a blowout barely registers, while a touchdown with the matchup on the line can be worth most of a win. One full win = 100 points of win probability.

Most costly

min 20 weeks
# Player Wk Pts vs Proj Play Decay Wins Added Worst Wk
1 QB Matt Schaub 56 777 −227 +7.86 −10.88 −3.02 −34.4
2 QB Brett Favre 41 503 −194 +5.48 −7.94 −2.45 −69.2
3 TE Vernon Davis 115 731 −157 +8.32 −10.77 −2.44 −29.4
4 QB Mike Vick 51 910 −145 +8.47 −10.71 −2.24 −44.8
5 QB Peyton Manning 123 2267 −243 +26.32 −28.55 −2.24 −44.9
6 WR Wes Welker 80 843 −104 +8.71 −10.92 −2.21 −75.1
7 RB Steven Jackson 99 1153 −188 +11.81 −14.00 −2.19 −28.6
8 RB Edgerrin James 32 311 −163 +3.01 −5.07 −2.07 −20.8
9 RB Ronnie Brown 48 503 −185 +5.65 −7.69 −2.04 −53.6
10 QB Tua Tagovailoa 54 900 −106 +10.29 −12.33 −2.04 −53.8
11 QB Kurt Warner 35 427 −181 +5.15 −7.13 −1.99 −51.7
12 WR Reggie Wayne 105 1107 −125 +11.74 −13.71 −1.97 −29.0
13 WR Marques Colston 103 906 −157 +9.34 −11.28 −1.94 −22.4
14 WR Santonio Holmes 62 516 −102 +6.39 −8.31 −1.92 −38.9
15 K David Akers 103 835 −196 +9.65 −11.51 −1.86 −37.3
16 K Evan McPherson 56 436 −97 +4.91 −6.75 −1.84 −58.4
17 TE Tony Gonzalez 108 891 −133 +8.59 −10.42 −1.83 −21.8
18 TE Kellen Winslow 74 496 −72 +5.24 −7.01 −1.77 −64.0
19 QB Jay Cutler 77 1062 −151 +10.97 −12.74 −1.76 −36.6
20 K Lawrence Tynes 52 411 −108 +3.89 −5.64 −1.75 −27.3
21 QB C.J. Stroud 34 513 −96 +5.82 −7.40 −1.58 −45.2
22 K Rob Bironas 73 590 −123 +6.77 −8.32 −1.55 −45.1
23 QB Kyler Murray 75 1517 −53 +18.44 −19.98 −1.54 −59.4
24 QB Donovan McNabb 49 785 −133 +8.31 −9.82 −1.51 −31.9
25 K Jeff Reed 20 149 −35 +1.86 −3.36 −1.51 −49.6
26 WR Santana Moss 49 378 −121 +4.06 −5.55 −1.50 −25.1
27 WR Donald Driver 48 396 −48 +4.65 −6.13 −1.48 −42.6
28 RB Joseph Addai 47 561 −111 +5.97 −7.41 −1.44 −64.0
29 WR Vincent Jackson 96 924 −80 +9.89 −11.30 −1.42 −76.2
30 QB Matt Hasselbeck 30 395 −87 +3.99 −5.39 −1.40 −24.7
31 K Jason Myers 86 692 −24 +7.51 −8.84 −1.34 −32.4
32 WR Derrick Mason 29 242 −40 +2.88 −4.17 −1.29 −51.5
33 QB Justin Herbert 76 1476 −111 +16.54 −17.83 −1.29 −69.2
34 WR Andre Johnson 111 1209 −146 +13.24 −14.48 −1.24 −38.3
35 WR Hakeem Nicks 51 476 −73 +5.63 −6.86 −1.24 −43.7
36 TE Brandon Pettigrew 35 180 −55 +1.74 −2.96 −1.22 −61.6
37 K Jason Sanders 50 411 −49 +4.05 −5.26 −1.21 −20.4
38 QB Trevor Lawrence 50 821 −110 +8.72 −9.91 −1.19 −18.6
39 DST Titans D/ST 132 1127 −78 +12.23 −13.40 −1.17 −32.9
40 RB Trent Richardson 29 287 −41 +3.60 −4.76 −1.16 −54.1
41 K Garrett Hartley 28 194 −77 +1.92 −3.04 −1.13 −11.3
42 WR DK Metcalf 97 941 +16 +9.69 −10.78 −1.10 −70.2
43 RB Rudi Johnson 20 177 −125 +1.74 −2.81 −1.08 −20.7
44 K Greg Joseph 27 191 −51 +2.36 −3.43 −1.07 −24.2
45 QB Marc Bulger 22 215 −121 +2.27 −3.34 −1.07 −21.7
46 K Kris Brown 29 160 −85 +1.28 −2.34 −1.06 −12.3
47 DST Jaguars D/ST 112 1048 −56 +11.45 −12.49 −1.05 −43.2
48 WR Marvin Harrison 32 264 −53 +2.29 −3.33 −1.04 −34.2
49 RB Reggie Bush 72 782 −107 +8.16 −9.19 −1.03 −23.5
50 DST Chargers D/ST 152 1398 −8 +13.12 −14.14 −1.02 −37.5